Migration risk for Turkey as Iran-Israel tensions continue: Here are the possible scenarios...

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has brought the possibility of a new refugee crisis on Turkey's eastern border to the agenda. Following the latest missile attack launched by Iran on Israel after a three-hour ceasefire, signals have emerged that the war will be prolonged. While the US and Israel are sending messages about regime change, a large wave of migration toward Turkey is expected if the Tehran administration weakens.

According to a report by Ragıp Soylu from Middle East Eye, based on Ankara sources, the Turkish government has kept this scenario on the table for a long time. In the preparation plans made last September, it was projected that approximately 1 million Iranians could reach the Turkish border if a full-scale Iran-Israel war broke out.

It is stated that Ankara has learned lessons from the social reaction experienced regarding Syrian refugees during this process. For this reason, a decision has been made to largely close the borders to Iranian citizens in the face of a new mass migration wave. Exceptions will only be applied for special cases in "urgent need of humanitarian aid."

AFGHAN REFUGEES MAY ALSO COME VIA IRAN

It is estimated that there are currently 4.5 million Afghan refugees in Iran. The possibility of this population turning toward Turkey in the event of the collapse of the Tehran regime or the complete disappearance of security in the country has become a priority agenda item for the security bureaucracy. Although no such movement is currently observed, military and technical preparations have been initiated to ensure border security.

The possibility of the Turkish-speaking Azerbaijani-origin population in Iran migrating to Turkey in a moment of crisis is also being evaluated. This development is being monitored with particular sensitivity as it could trigger both ethnic and political debates. However, it is stated that there is no movement in this direction at this stage.

Another scenario that draws attention in the event of a regime collapse is the attempt by Iran's wealthy and elite segments to seek refuge in Turkey. Currently, 76 thousand Iranians hold residence permits in Turkey. Since 2019, 35 thousand Iranians have purchased property in Turkey. Among these individuals are high-level former state officials, soldiers, and business people.

In the past, allegations had surfaced that Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf owned numerous apartments in Istanbul. According to experts, Turkey will not completely close its doors to this segment. Especially within the framework of economic and diplomatic relations, these individuals may be evaluated under the scope of "privileged entry."

MEASURES INCREASED AT BORDERS

Although officials state that there is no uncontrolled crossing on the Iranian border at the moment, additional military measures have been taken at border gates and transit routes against a possible migration wave. Turkey is also working on "safe zone" and cross-border buffer policies to manage humanitarian crises in a possible regime collapse scenario.