Year-end calculations for the minimum wage: Here are the possible figures on the table

Millions have their eyes on the second Minimum Wage Determination Commission meeting held yesterday.

While estimates and rates for the 2025 minimum wage hike are flying around, a new assessment has come from SGK expert Özgür Erdursun, who accurately predicted the minimum wage last year.

Erdursun explained the possible figures based on scenarios where President Erdoğan intervenes and where he does not.

FIGURES DISCUSSED FOR THE 2025 MINIMUM WAGE

In his statement to Dünya Gazetesi, SGK expert Özgür Erdursun listed the different increase rates for the minimum wage as follows:

20% increase: 20,403 TL

25% increase: 21,253 TL

30% increase: 22,103 TL

35% increase: 22,953 TL

40% increase: 23,803 TL

45% increase: 24,654 TL

50% increase: 25,504 TL

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE MINIMUM WAGE IF ERDOĞAN INTERVENES?

Although Erdursun predicts that the minimum wage could be in the 22,000 TL band with a 30% raise, he stated that if President Erdoğan intervenes, this figure could rise to the 23,000 TL level.

Recalling periods in previous years when President Erdoğan personally announced the minimum wage, Erdursun pointed out that the same scenario could occur this year.

SGK PREMIUM REVENUES AND SUPPORT CALCULATION

Stating that the current monthly insurance premium revenues of the SGK are 248 billion 500 million TL, Erdursun expressed that in a 35% raise scenario, premium revenues would increase by 87 billion TL per month.

Furthermore, emphasizing that if 2,000 TL of support per person is provided to the employer, it would cost approximately 32 billion TL, the expert stated that even in this scenario, the SGK's revenue increase would reach 55 billion TL.

THE 25,000 TL FORMULA AND ITS EFFECTS

While Erdursun stated that the minimum wage could rise to the 25,000 TL level with a 35% raise and support formula, he said that if the government's target is 25,000 TL, the figure could rise up to 27,000 TL.

Reminding that 2 million 191 thousand 292 businesses operate in Turkey, Erdursun stated that 87.5% of these businesses employ between 1 and 9 workers.

Expressing that the proportion of large businesses is only at the level of 9 per thousand, he emphasized that minimum wage support is of critical importance, especially for small tradespeople.