Election time in the country caught between the EU and Russia...

The Republic of Moldova is a country of significant importance for the EU and NATO, and at the same time lies along Russia's western forward defence axis… Parliamentary elections will be held in the country on 28 September 2025. These elections are said to be among the most important since the country declared independence on 27 August 1991, following the dissolution of the USSR.

Moldovan citizens will elect the members of a 101-seat parliament determined by a proportional list system, as well as the government that will rule the country for 4 years.

Located in Eastern Europe, between Romania and Ukraine, the country will see a pro-EU and pro-Western alliance compete against an anti-EU, pro-Russian alliance.
Moldova, with a population of approximately 2.6 million, is currently governed by the pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which holds 61 seats in parliament. The alliance of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) and the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) holds 26 seats. There are also 13 independent members of parliament, most of whom are former members of the now-banned Șor Party.

Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) leader Maia Sandu narrowly won the second round of the presidential election held on 3 November 2024, defeating her socialist rival, former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo. Following the party's victory in the parliamentary elections, various steps were taken toward EU membership. EU candidate status was obtained in 2022. Accession negotiations were launched in 2024. EU membership was incorporated into the constitution through a referendum held recently, which passed by a razor-thin margin.

TRANSNISTRIA AND GAGAUZIA: MOLDOVA'S 'ACHILLES' HEELS'

Moldova is a country of geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the EU and NATO. On the other hand, it lies along Russia's western forward defence axis. The de facto state of Transnistria and the Russian troops stationed there, as well as the autonomous region of Gagauzia (Gökoğuz), home to Orthodox Turks, are significant in this regard. Most recently, the name of Gagauzia's elected President Evgenia Gutul came up in a case involving the illegal financing of the banned Șor Party. She was tried, kept under house arrest during the process, and sentenced to 7 years in prison on the grounds that she received money from Russia. Various protest actions were held and the verdict was described as politically motivated.

These issues place Moldova in a politically difficult position. In the words of retired Vice Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, Gagauzia and Transnistria are 'Moldova's Achilles' heels' (Cem Gürdeniz, Gagauzlar, Moldova, 3 Deniz Girişimi ve Karadeniz'de yeni istikrarsızlık cepheleri, Veryansıntv).

THE CURRENT SITUATION…

I had asked journalist and researcher-author Dr. Violeta Stratan, and she kindly sent me a briefing note on the parties eligible to participate in the election. She noted that 25 parties and two blocs have the right to contest the election.

Apart from the ruling PAS, the newly established 'Alliance for Moldova' is drawing attention. It advocates drafting laws to uphold the country's sovereignty, military neutrality (rejecting membership in any military bloc — NATO, etc.), press freedom, and an end to pressure on political opponents, as well as protecting traditional values and maintaining equal relations and cooperation with both West and East. (Erkin Öncan, Moldova'da seçimler yaklaşırken, yeni sol ittifak dikkat çekiyor, Independent Türkçe)

They level sharp criticism at the president, alleging that she has plunged the country into debt through EU loans, dragged it into the Ukraine-Russia war, and forced citizens to emigrate abroad.
In terms of economic policy, they say they will prioritise support for agriculture and the local economy, rural development, and international cooperation to balance energy costs.

The alliance includes the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, the Party for Moldova's Future, and the Party of the Heart of Moldova, founded by former Gagauzia President Irina Vlah.

PAS leader Igor Grosu described the alliance as having been "taken out of mothballs on Kremlin orders."

Another notable bloc in the country is the pro-Russian 'Victory Bloc' led by businessman İlan Şor. However, the bloc's participation in the elections was rejected on the grounds that "its election financing violated the law."

WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY?

Moldova is a small country. It has lost 40 percent of its population — which stood at 4 million 335 thousand thirty years ago — to emigration. It is militarily weak and economically insufficient. The country faces various problems in terms of economic and political stability. Citizens hold many expectations, including prosperity, the fight against corruption, and the acceleration of economic reforms. It is against this backdrop that voters are heading to the polls.

Looking at the polls, according to a report published in Birgün, Sandu's ruling party PAS stands at 27.4 percent. The Socialist Party is at 10.4 percent, and the Victory Bloc at 6.2 percent. Since the Victory Bloc's participation in the election was rejected, it is estimated that these votes will go to the Alliance for Moldova.

On the evening of 28 September, will the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) receive a fresh mandate to continue its march along the EU-Western axis?

Will the anti-EU, anti-NATO alliance — which has sharply criticised President Maia Sandu and PAS — emerge victorious from these elections this time?

We will all find out together…