Prof. Dr. Tarık Oğuzlu evaluates the critical process in Syria: 'The Assad regime's days are numbered'

In Syria, the Assad regime has lost control in Hama for the first time since the civil war began in 2011, while Assad's army has left Deir ez-Zor to the PKK. Prof. Dr. Tarık Oğuzlu, Chairman of the Academic Board of the Foreign Policy Institute, explained to 12punto the direction in which the needle is rapidly turning in Syria and how Turkey will be affected by this process. Prof. Dr. Oğuzlu stated, 'The Assad regime's days are numbered.'

Don't leave your news choices to an algorithm - decide for yourself what you read. Add 12punto to your preferred sources!

Prof. Dr. Tarık Oğuzlu evaluates the critical process in Syria: 'The Assad regime's days are numbered'

Clashes between opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the forces of President Bashar al-Assad have been ongoing in Syria since November 27.

According to the latest information from the region, the Rastan highway bridge, which is located in Homs and connects the city to Hama and the northern regions, has been bombed. It is reported that the critical bridge was targeted by Russian aircraft.

On the other hand, Assad's army has left Deir ez-Zor to the PKK.

Prof. Dr. Tarık Oğuzlu, Chairman of the Academic Board of the Foreign Policy Institute, evaluated the latest developments in Syria and Turkey's potential to be affected by the war for 12punto.

“THE ASSAD REGIME'S DAYS ARE NUMBERED”

Starting his remarks by stating that the HTS operation is advancing very rapidly, Prof. Dr. Oğuzlu explained the current situation in Syria as follows:

“HTS elements are coming to Hama after Aleppo, and to Homs after Hama. Assad is seriously cornered; in such a conjuncture, he is leaving his presence in Deir ez-Zor to the PYD, at least to avoid trouble stemming from the PYD.

Because he might be wanting to regroup his forces there and establish a stronger defense line against HTS. This is a situation consistent with US policy. Because the US also does not want HTS and the PYD to ever be in conflict.

In fact, the US is advising the PYD to move its elements from places west of the Euphrates, such as Tel Rifaat and Manbij, even to the east of the Euphrates. But both the US and Israel are doing their best to ensure that the PYD's presence east of the Euphrates is never in danger.

From this point on, it must be said that the Assad regime's days are numbered. Because it does not seem possible for him to receive any serious military support capacity from either Iran or Russia.

Already, when Iran tries to send its paramilitary elements in Iraq to help Assad, both Israel and the US strike them. He is very cornered.

Hezbollah is already preoccupied with its own problems, and it is not possible to receive support from that side either. In other words, all developments are turning against Assad.”

HOW WILL TURKEY BE AFFECTED BY THE WAR?

Expressing that it is possible for refugees in Turkey to return to Syria, Prof. Dr. Oğuzlu stated, “The reality on the ground right now is compatible with Turkey's interests. Because the withdrawal of the PYD from Tel Rifaat and Manbij is the picture Turkey wants to see. Turkey also seems to have accepted the possibility of Assad's rule coming to an end. If a new administration emerges in which HTS is involved, there is a high probability that the refugees we estimate to be around 3.5 to 4 million in Turkey will return to Syria. For there to be another serious wave of migration from Syria to Turkey, the Assad regime and, above all, Russia, would need to carry out serious bombing against the people in Aleppo and Idlib, that is, in the regions under HTS control, so that those people would think their lives are in danger and flock to the Turkish border. There is no such possibility visible right now.”

“REFUGEES WILL RETURN TO SYRIA”

Underlining that a new regime will be established in Syria, Prof. Dr. Oğuzlu said, “That regime will guarantee the lives of the people in Syria. HTS will also move away from its radicalism and extreme religious identity to gain a more moderate and middle-of-the-road character, which is the only way the forced refugees in Turkey can return to Syria. I think this is the main message that both the US and the UK are giving to HTS. They want them to shed their radicalism and show that they are not like Al-Qaeda or ISIS. They state that if they proceed in this direction, they will not be an obstacle in their war against Assad. Turkey also wants this.”

“IF ASSAD MEETS THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE US AND ISRAEL…”

Conveying the conditions for Assad's rule to continue in Syria, Prof. Dr. Oğuzlu said, “The Syrian State will undoubtedly continue to exist. But in the new Syrian administration, we will witness different groups controlling and continuing to control some regions within the framework of autonomy. A more fragmented Syrian geography will prevail. In other words, the Damascus administration will not be able to rule over the whole of Syria as it did when Assad was at his strongest. Although it is likely that Assad will go, a weak Assad could remain in power, but only if one condition is met. If Assad fulfills the most important expectation of the US and Israel, foreign powers may allow Assad to remain in power. That condition is this: ending Iran's presence in Syria and preventing Iran from using Syria as a route to provide military support to Hezbollah. If Syria moves away from Iran, approaches Israel and the US, and enters into a diplomatic negotiation process with Turkey, Assad's rule could continue under these conditions. This would be a development that would be in line with Turkey's national interests,” emphasizing that Assad's existence depends on the US and Israel.

“THE PYD WILL FOLLOW A DEFENSIVE POLICY”

Evaluating the threats to Turkish territory, Prof. Dr. Oğuzlu concluded his remarks by saying, “If you look at it within the framework of Kurdish romantic nationalism, you see that the PKK and its Syrian extension, the PYD, are a movement chasing an independent Kurdish State, but it is not possible for Turkey to allow such a thing from this point on. I do not think the PYD would desire such a thing either. They will also follow a defensive policy aimed at protecting the gains they have achieved so far in post-Assad Syria. They will not want to fight or come face-to-face with HTS. Because in such a case, Turkey could support HTS. There is also no guarantee how long the US will continue its support for the PKK/PYD.”

News Source: Beste Çelik