Elections and the Middle East

The world is currently focused on the Israeli elections held on October 27 and the US midterm elections to be held on November 3. These elections are two developments of significance for the future of the Middle East. While the election results in Israel have not yet finalized how the government will be shaped, the elections in the US will show whether the political balances in Congress will change. So, what is the fundamental reason for the interest in these two elections? Why are these elections important, especially for those of us living in this geography?

The interest shown in both elections stems from the fact that the results will not be limited to the domestic politics of Israel and the US. These results could also affect developments in the Middle East and other parts of the world, particularly in energy and the economy. However, this impact depends not only on the election results but also on how new political balances are shaped and to what extent existing policies will change.

These elections will not only determine how the government in Israel will be formed and which party will gain power in the US Congress. Questions regarding how relations between the two countries will be shaped in the future will also come to the fore. War with Iran, developments in Gaza and Lebanon, the Palestinian issue, and regional balances in the Gulf are among the main topics that could be affected by the election results. Therefore, these elections are important in terms of whether current policies in the Middle East will continue and whether regional power balances will change.

Possible outcomes of the elections

The elections in Israel and the US are important not only for the political future of both countries but also for the direction of their security and military policies. However, the elections held in the two countries are not of a nature to produce the same political results. While the elections in Israel directly affect the formation of the government and the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the midterm elections in the US will determine whether Donald Trump's support in Congress will continue.

It is observed that the political relationship between Netanyahu and Trump is influential in shaping the Middle East policies of both countries. However, it is not sufficient to explain developments in the region solely through the political future of these two leaders. The security priorities and strategic interests of the two countries play a role in determining regional policies.

Changes in political balances in both countries could lead to differentiation in the countries' priorities and the methods pursued. However, in the event that Netanyahu loses his political power and Trump's support in Congress diminishes, a radical change in the war with Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, and the Palestinian issue should not be expected to occur in the short term. This is because these issues are linked not only to the preferences of current leaders but also to the countries' security perceptions and long-term strategic interests.

Regarding Iran, Israel's long-standing security concerns and the historical hostility between the two countries cannot be expected to disappear with a change in government. Nevertheless, a new Israeli administration could change the methods followed in policy toward Iran, the use of military options, and the nature of cooperation with the US. 

A similar situation applies to the Palestinian issue. A change of government in Israel will not ensure that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict ends on its own. For this reason, differences may be seen in the policies pursued regarding a solution rather than the end of the conflict.

A change of government in Israel could also create some differences in relations with the US. However, it should not be expected that Israel's new administration will pursue a policy that completely conflicts with the US's fundamental interests in the region. Furthermore, a new administration might adopt a different approach to reduce international criticism of Israel and restore the country's international reputation.

In the US midterm elections to be held on November 3, the Democrats gaining power in Congress could limit the Trump administration's foreign policy implementations. However, this does not mean that the US's Middle East policy will change suddenly.

On the other hand, the international political effects of Trump being elected president for a second time in 2024 were not limited to US foreign policy. Trump's political rhetoric and management style have also formed a reference for some political leaders and governments in different countries. For this reason, the results of the US midterm elections could also affect the attitudes of administrations that are politically or rhetorically influenced by Trump's approach. 

At the root of the interest in the elections lies the question of how the future of the Middle East will be shaped. However, it is not sufficient to evaluate this future solely through the names who will come to power. What is truly important is the development of policies that prioritize the security and economic prosperity of the peoples of the region, respect their fundamental rights, and contribute to the resolution of existing conflicts. 

In conclusion; although the Israeli elections and the US midterm elections will not determine the future of the Middle East on their own, they are important developments that could affect the direction of regional policies. The true impact of the elections will be seen in the extent to which the resulting political picture is reflected in security policies and diplomatic relations, and how it contributes to the resolution of conflicts. 

The measure of lasting change is not merely the change of leaders, but the transformation of policies that fuel conflicts and the adoption of an approach that prioritizes the security, prosperity, and rights of the peoples of the region.