A new balance in the Eastern Mediterranean

On October 20, 2026, the Memorandum of Understanding on the Delimitation of Maritime Jurisdiction Areas between Turkey and Libya was ratified by the Libyan House of Representatives. The memorandum, which was signed in 2019 and registered with the United Nations (UN) the same year, has gained significant support among political institutions in eastern Libya following the House of Representatives' decision to lift its 2020 rejection and grant approval.

In recent years, it has been observed that Ankara has adopted a more balanced and inclusive approach to its Libya policy. In line with the goal of preserving Libya's territorial integrity, Turkey has increased its contacts not only with the Tripoli-based government but also with the Haftar administration. This approach demonstrates that Turkey does not view Libya solely in the context of internal political instability, but also as an integral part of the strategic equation in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Indeed, over the past five years, the Eastern Mediterranean has become a new geopolitical arena where energy resources, security concerns, and diplomatic competition intersect. While natural gas discoveries have paved the way for new alliances and the formation of exclusionary blocs in the region, the energy and security cooperation developing between Israel, Greece, and the Greek Cypriot Administration has created a structure that affects regional balances in the Eastern Mediterranean. This cooperation carries the potential to exclude Turkey not only from energy projects but also from regional decision-making mechanisms.

Libya, which stands out with its oil and natural gas wealth, has become one of the key actors in the Eastern Mediterranean in this competitive environment. In this context, the Memorandum of Understanding on the Delimitation of Maritime Jurisdiction Areas signed between Turkey and Libya in 2019 has been a significant development in terms of regional balances in the Eastern Mediterranean. The memorandum defined a vast maritime jurisdiction area between Turkey and Libya and was met with a harsh reaction from many actors, primarily Greece. The political division in Libya, however, has made the impact of the memorandum complex and fragile.

Strategic Balance in Maritime Areas

Libya losing its position in Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics or aligning with anti-Turkey blocs would be a development that could limit Turkey's claims regarding maritime jurisdiction areas and its strategic room for maneuver in the region. For this reason, Ankara's establishment of contact with different political actors in Libya is important not only for preserving political unity in the country but also for maintaining its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The energy and security cooperation developing between Israel, Greece, and the Greek Cypriot Administration has a nature that could affect Turkey's regional position. The importance of the memorandum signed with Libya in this framework is that it provides a political and diplomatic basis for Turkey's approach to maritime jurisdiction areas. 

The Political Meaning of the Approval

The ratification of the memorandum by the Libyan House of Representatives is important in terms of strengthening the agreement's political and institutional basis within Libya. However, the fact that the memorandum has been registered by the UN and approved by the House of Representatives does not eliminate the objections of other countries, nor does it automatically resolve all legal disputes regarding maritime jurisdiction areas.

The importance of the decision should be evaluated not only in terms of its legal consequences but also in terms of the change in the attitudes of political actors within Libya. Indeed, the fact that some figures who previously opposed the memorandum now support its ratification shows that views on this issue have changed over time.

Misbah Douma, Second Deputy Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, who opposed the ratification of the memorandum in 2020 and characterized it as "submitting to the Ottoman occupation" that his ancestors resisted, stated in his statement on October 20 that the decision to ratify the memorandum was based on technical reports and the work of expert committees. Douma stated that previous reservations toward Turkey stemmed from sensitivities regarding respect for sovereignty protocols. He also explained that Turkey's role in Libya should be evaluated within the framework of reconstruction, development, and economic cooperation, based on mutual interests and respect for sovereignty (Libya Alahrar TV, October 20, 2026. Misbah Douma's statement regarding the memorandum).

This development is important in terms of partially overcoming the disagreements between different political actors in Libya regarding the issue of maritime jurisdiction areas. However, the fact that this decision has been taken does not mean that it will completely end the political division in Libya. What is truly important is how this decision will reflect on the future of relations between the two countries and the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Regional Objections Continue

Greece, Egypt, the Greek Cypriot Administration, and the EU oppose the memorandum regarding the delimitation of maritime jurisdiction areas. These objections are linked to the countries' strategic and economic interests, as well as different legal approaches in the region.

Greece considers the memorandum a violation of its maritime rights and argues that Greek islands, especially Crete and Rhodes, should be taken into account in determining maritime borders. Egypt, in line with its interests regarding maritime jurisdiction areas in the Eastern Mediterranean, opposes the memorandum and has stated that it has no legal effect for itself. While the Greek Cypriot Administration evaluates the memorandum as a violation of sovereignty and maritime rights, the EU has also claimed that the memorandum infringes upon the sovereign rights of third countries and is inconsistent with international maritime law.

These different stances reveal that the delimitation of maritime jurisdiction areas is not a subject that can be handled solely through bilateral agreements. Therefore, the regional impact of the memorandum will depend on the course of diplomatic relations and the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the legal claims of the parties.

The Real Test is on the Ground

The ratification of the memorandum is an important step that could strengthen Turkey's position in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, for this situation to turn into a permanent gain, it depends on overcoming the instability in Libya, maintaining dialogue between different political actors in the country, and developing cooperation between the two countries. For this reason, it is important for Turkey to continue to pursue a cautious and multi-faceted strategy in its Libya policy.

Just as the ratification of the memorandum is important, so are the results it will produce on the ground. It is important to evaluate the development not only as a diplomatic gain for Turkey but also within the framework of its possible effects on regional balances in the Eastern Mediterranean.

One of the fundamental challenges for the countries of the region is the competition over maritime jurisdiction areas and energy resources. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an approach based on common interests and security instead of existing disputes. Instead of steps that deepen competition, cooperation should be strengthened and joint investments should be increased. Such an approach could contribute not only to the utilization of energy resources but also to the establishment of a more stable and sustainable regional order in the Eastern Mediterranean.