Is Oktay Saral’s departure a resignation or a sign of a new role?

The tension between Ankara and Baku in recent days has brought about a remarkable development in the upper echelons of politics. Chief Advisor to the President Oktay Saral announced today in a statement on his social media account that he has left his post following the polemics with Azerbaijan. 

According to clear statements from some journalists working for media outlets close to the government, this request for departure came directly from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Looking at the background of the process, it is clear that the sharp reflex shown by the Baku administration was not a coincidence. 

The discomfort caused by the victory achieved in the Karabakh War being used as material for domestic politics in Turkey had been voiced from time to time in diplomatic corridors. However, this time, the statements made by Oktay Saral, one of the most visible figures of the Palace, directly targeting the dress code and headscarf regulations applied in schools in Azerbaijan, were perceived in Baku as "interference in internal affairs" and became the final straw.

The Azerbaijani administration's response to these statements was not limited to diplomatic reproach. Allegations that an entry ban to Azerbaijan had been imposed on many figures known for their closeness to the government and who made posts against Baku were reflected in the agenda. 

This determined stance put forward by Baku gave rise to a critical resignation, characterized as being between "requesting to be relieved of duty" and "being dismissed" in Ankara.

Diplomatic observers draw attention to the seriousness of the process by comparing the weight of this tension between the two countries to the Pastor Brunson crisis of the past. At this point, it is also necessary not to ignore the regional energy equations and the commercial relations on the Bakü-Tel Aviv line.

As is known, Azerbaijani oil is delivered to international markets and Israel via pipelines passing through Turkey. Whether strategic trump cards regarding energy and trade lines were put on the table behind the scenes of the diplomatic crisis has not yet found an answer.

On the other side of the coin, there is a completely different claim that has stirred up the Ankara corridors. According to inside information conveyed to 12punto from reliable sources, Oktay Saral's departure from his position as chief advisor is not a purge, but rather a preparation for a new assignment. 

In the corridors, it is being discussed that Saral will be rewarded with a ministerial seat in a possible cabinet reshuffle. Indeed, immediately after the resignation decision, the fact that some accounts close to the ruling party on social media began to create public opinion and make calls in this direction supports these claims.

Political analysts who know the internal dynamics of the AKP and President Erdoğan's political style closely agree that Erdoğan would not completely discredit and sideline a name like Oktay Saral, with whom he has walked for many years, due to reactions coming from outside. 

According to additional inside information spoken in the corridors of Ankara, Saral's name is being mentioned especially for the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

It is, of course, difficult to predict with certainty today what strategic calculations are being made behind closed doors in the political arena and what kind of balances are being observed. However, in order to understand both the fragility on the Baku-Ankara line and the internal power balances of the government, it is useful to note these inside details, which carry the nature of "claims" and "rumors" today, for history. The coming days will show us all to what extent these claims will turn into reality.