From the Greater Middle East Project to Central Asia: The new route of the Abraham Accords

The beginning of a new era of interaction between the US and Central Asia became concrete with Kazakhstan's announcement of its participation in the Abraham Accords at the C5+1 (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) summit. This development reveals the potential for the agreement to expand toward Asia. For the countries of the region, the pursuit of economic security and political stability are among the determining factors in this process. There is a possibility that other Central Asian states may join the process in the future.

KAZAKHSTAN: THE KEY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL ASIA 

Kazakhstan is a state located in the heart of Central Asia, with a coastline on the Caspian Sea and a strategic position between China and Russia. While maintaining good relations with Russia and China, the country also aims to establish balanced relations with Western countries. Kazakhstan, which has had diplomatic relations with Israel since 1992, is now taking steps to improve its cooperation with the US.

Kazakhstan's participation in the Abraham Accords is a reflection of a Middle East-focused “normalization” process in Central Asia and can be considered more of a symbolic step. This situation can also be interpreted as a sign of the US's intention to expand its regional strategies into Central Asia.

GOAL: A NEW CIRCLE AGAINST IRAN AND CHINA 

The example of Kazakhstan serves as a case study for understanding the potential strategic reflections of the Abraham Accords in Central Asia. The expansion of the Abraham Accords to Central Asia reveals the possible strategic goals of this initiative:

- To transport the alliance established between Israel and Sunni Arab states to Central Asia.

- To keep Iran's nuclear activities under control.

- To create an alternative line to China's “Belt and Road” project.

These developments are seen as possible strategic orientations rather than finalized goals.

AN ALTERNATIVE MODEL TO THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION?

The primary concerns of Central Asian states have been security, counter-terrorism, and economic development. In line with these concerns, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established in 2001 under the leadership of Russia and China. Some analyses suggest that the Abraham Accords could be a diplomatic alternative framework that could address these concerns. However, this initiative does not mean an official security organization that replaces the SCO.

It can be foreseen that the US may aim to restructure the Muslim geography in Central Asia, just as it did in the Middle East, by distancing the region from Russian, Iranian, and Chinese influence through these agreements, and to shape the global order in its own favor, but there is no concrete strategic plan yet.

TRUMP'S PASSION FOR WEALTH AND CENTRAL ASIA'S RESOURCES 

Due to US President Donald Trump's passion for wealth, underground resources in countries such as Canada, Venezuela, Ukraine, and Turkey are also of strategic importance to the US and are taken into account in its regional policies. Central Asia, as a region rich in energy and rare elements, also attracts the attention of the US. Access to these resources is of strategic importance to the US and increases the likelihood of strengthening Washington's policy of balancing Russian and Chinese influence in the region.

RISKS AND POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES 

The expansion of the Abraham Accords to Central Asia could create question marks regarding regional security. This situation has the potential to change the existing balance. Furthermore, the expansion of the agreement could affect international reactions to Israel's practices in Gaza.

The participation of states that value international law and human rights in such an alliance could indirectly mean endorsing Israel's policies. 

Kazakhstan's and other regional states' participation in the Abraham Accords could conflict with the search for stability in the region and could also lead to a weakening of relations between Central Asian countries.

In short, the struggle for strategic resources in Central Asia is a critical turning point that will determine regional stability and global power balances.