The new OPEC without the UAE

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of OPEC's major oil producers, has announced that it will withdraw from the organization and its expanded structure, OPEC+, as of May 1, 2026. The UAE, which had previously given signals in this direction from time to time, cites its desire to act independently, particularly regarding production quotas and supply restrictions, as the reason. This decision has the potential to produce not only economic but also geopolitical consequences.

The Historical Role of OPEC

OPEC was founded in Baghdad in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela. The organization's primary goal is to coordinate the oil policies of member countries and ensure price stability in the global oil market, while also reducing imbalances in profit-sharing for foreign companies operating in producer countries.

The “Oil Crisis” of 1973 brought OPEC's influence in the global system to its peak. The oil embargo implemented by Arab producer countries demonstrated that oil was not only an economic tool but also a strategic one.

Today, the number of OPEC members has reached 12: Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela. However, over time, differences in interests within the organization have become more pronounced, and disputes over production quotas, investment policies, and market share have occasionally weakened the organization's unity.

The power vacuum created by the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Persian Gulf in the 1970s increased regional competition and led to the end of the era of cheap oil. Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, which became the primary actors in the region, used the revenue growth provided by OPEC to increase their military and strategic capacity.

The 1973 Arab-Israeli War was a critical turning point that deepened the oil crisis. Some Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia, used oil as a tool of pressure against the US and the West. This policy became an element of political pressure, especially in the face of the US support for Israel. For the US, the “Gulf Issue” emerged as a geopolitical topic for the first time during this period.

Why is the UAE leaving?

The UAE's decision to withdraw, having joined OPEC in 1967, is considered not to be sudden, but the result of long-term preparation. The country's increase in production capacity, strengthening of export infrastructure, and development of new logistics lines are important indicators of this process.

Several key factors stand out in the UAE's decision to withdraw. First, the country wants to act more flexibly and independently in its energy policy. The UAE, which has a production capacity of approximately 3–4 million barrels per day, believes that production quotas limit this potential.

Second, the UAE is diversifying its energy strategy; it is making significant investments in renewable energy and low-carbon technologies. In this context, it shows that it has begun to move partially away from OPEC's traditional oil-based approach.

Third, logistical and geostrategic advantages are decisive. The UAE aims to carry out its oil exports through the Port of Fujairah, which opens to the Gulf of Oman, in a way that will reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy is of critical importance for supply security, especially during times of crisis.

Finally, it can be evaluated that the decision is related to regional power balances. The economic competition between the UAE, which believes it deserves to be a regional power, and Saudi Arabia, as well as strategic differences in regions such as Yemen, Somalia, and Sudan, take this separation beyond being merely an energy policy issue.

Regional and Global Reflections

This withdrawal is also being evaluated as a withdrawal from the Arab League. The UAE's departure from OPEC shows that power competition in the Gulf region has gained a new dimension. This development is of a nature that could affect not only economic but also defense and foreign policy alliances. The deepening of the UAE's relations with Israel and India is considered an alternative orientation to the Saudi Arabia-centered regional balances.

The Future of OPEC

This separation has brought discussions about the future of OPEC back to the agenda. Although the organization will not completely dissolve, the departure of a country that is a major producer can be considered a significant blow. The departure of Qatar (2019), Ecuador (2020), and Angola (2024) from the organization in previous years has increased question marks about the future of OPEC. Despite this, the organization is not expected to dissolve completely, but it is likely that its influence on global energy will decrease.

Looking at it from the perspective of the US, considering the long-standing criticisms of OPEC's price policies, it can be said that this development is welcomed by the US. In his 2018 UN General Assembly speech, Donald Trump accused OPEC countries of ‘exploiting the world’ by keeping oil prices high, stating that the US provides security to most of these countries, yet the US economy is negatively affected by high energy prices. Based on these statements, it can be said that the interests of US-UAE relations overlap.

However, within the framework of claims that the OPEC+ structure created in 2016 (Russia, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan, Mexico, and Azerbaijan) serves Russia and Iran, it is assessed that this withdrawal will have negative effects on the Russian and Iranian economies. Furthermore, this development is also characterized as a geopolitical blow in favor of the US against Iran, Russia, and China.

Conclusion

The UAE's departure from OPEC points to a structural fracture in the global energy system. It can be said that this development is not only a change in production policies but also a harbinger of a new era in terms of regional power balances, alliance relations, and global energy security.

While OPEC is not expected to dissolve completely in the short term, it is likely that the organization's influence will diminish and a more flexible, multi-actor energy order will emerge. It is not clear who will be the winner in this process. In the long term, market dynamics and new energy technologies will be decisive.

In conclusion, the UAE's decision indicates a transformation process in the global energy field rather than just a separation.